In mid-to-late July, domestic sports brands disclosed part of their retail performance in the second quarter. Overall, from the brand dimension horizontal comparison, the sales growth rate of each brand in the second quarter did not differ much, and most of them were in the single-digit decline range. But except for Anta, the FILA brand of Anta Group has dropped from a single-digit decline back to an increase of 10%-20%, while Disante has grown by more than 60%.


From the vertical time dimension, each brand is compared with the same period last year. Although FILA and Anta's other brands have changed from decline to rise, there is still a big gap with the growth rate of 55%-60% in the same period last year. Among the major brands listed on Hong Kong stocks, Xtep has a slightly larger year-on-year change in the second quarter, mainly due to its faster growth in the second quarter of last year.

Li Ning has not announced the sales of last year and the second quarter of this year, but Credit Suisse released a research report that Li Ning's second quarter shipment rate will be flat in single digits, and sales are expected to fall by 8.7% in the first half of this year. HSBC Research expects Li Ning's revenue to fall by 4.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly due to a 20% drop in offline retail revenue.

With the domestic epidemic under control, the overall market vitality in the second quarter has gradually improved. Compared with the first quarter, domestic sports brands generally recovered in the second quarter. It can be seen from the above table that most domestic sports brands have returned to the single-digit or low-double-digit decline from the 20%+ decline in the first quarter, and the increase is basically about 20%.



From early July to mid-July, before the release of the second quarter data of various sports brands, a number of major companies considered that the brand development was insufficient and lowered their ratings. Analyze and summarize the three main reasons:

① The European and American epidemics have hindered the development of overseas brands. Furui downgraded Anta's rating, believing that Anta's operating control over Amer is lower than expected. It is expected that Amer will bring a loss of 650 million yuan to the company, higher than the previous estimate of 490 million yuan. JPMorgan Chase lowered Xtep's target price, believing that although Xtep's core business is stable, the drag on overseas brands is less than expected, and the newly acquired two international brands K-Swiss and Palladium for US$260 million are affected by the epidemic in Europe and America Business is at a standstill.

②Excessive discounts have an impact on brand profitability. Citi believes that Anta continues to provide retail discounts for the FILA brand and is not optimistic about the company's future profitability. Credit Suisse downgraded Li Ning's rating, pointing out that Li Ning's online clothing prices have dropped significantly. The average price has dropped from 351 yuan in the last week of January to 232 yuan in the first week of June, a 34% drop.

③The inventory is hard to sell. Credit Suisse believes that the overall inventory level of domestic sports brands is still relatively high. In the first quarter, the inventory will be pushed to the third quarter. However, it will face market competition brought about by the transfer of international brand inventory from Europe and the United States to China.



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